I love college football! I love the SEC—especially LSU! I love this time of year!
The preseason rankings are out, and Alabama and Florida seem to be in everybody’s top 5. That’s fine. They’ve earned it. But, are they really the best teams in their respective divisions much less among the best in the country? Maybe.
Florida won every game last year except the one with Alabama, but its offense, in the first year without Dan Mullen, wasn’t nearly as effective against decent and bad SEC defenses. They began to struggle with LSU. An uncalled offensive interference led to their only touchdown, and the lowest point total in Meyer’s tenure. Then they needed a winning field goal to beat Arkansas and its horrible defense. Bad calls by the refs and Dan Mullen set up their win over Mississippi State. A fourth quarter touchdown stretched the lead to 10 over South Carolina.
The only one of these teams that should have been able to compete with Florida was LSU. Good thing for Florida that Les Miles didn’t call anything risky like a forward pass. (3 completions longer than 10 yards—only 6 incompletions)
I think Florida may struggle more this season. Besides losing their saint, they also lost a ton of other talent, their long-time defensive coordinator, and they’ll have to revamp to a more conventional offense that will be easier to game-plan against by their opponents.
I do think they’ll win the EAST because I don’t think South Carolina or Georgia can step up and beat them. They may win it all, but that will have to start with their game against Alabama on Oct 2, unless South Florida shocks the world.
South Carolina could challenge them if their defense can play up to its potential. It will need some consistency from the offense which hasn’t been there since Steve Taneyhill was the QB.
Georgia has another new QB, and this one is a freshman. They also have a new defensive coordinator, finally, and a new 3-4 scheme. I think they’ll lose some early games.
Though I wish Randall Cobb played for LSU, he can only play one position at a time for Kentucky. That’s not enough fot them to be competitive. I like Coach Caldwell, and I wish he had better players to work with at Vanderbilt.
Alabama may be AWESOME this year. I thought they’d struggle a little last season with McElroy, and they did. Only, it wasn’t at the beginning of the season against VA TECH. It was in the middle, and all of that was sorted out before the LSU game. Replacing an entire defense in the SEC is one hell of a task. I know Alabama has a ton of new talent to put on the field, but this is asking a whole lot. As great as they were last year, Alabama was behind in the 4th against LSU and Auburn and surprisingly struggled with Tennessee. Seven opponents, or more, could give them problems this season.
LSU. An enigma wrapped in a mystery. The team underachieved last season, even though they were only upset once—by Ole Miss, and that was a give-away. Better offensive play-calling may have changed the outcome of the Florida game, and they may have beaten Alabama if the interception by Peterson had stood. There were also the close calls against Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, LA TECH, and Arkansas. I’m hoping for better blocking from an offensive line that replaces some starters. I’m hoping for better defensive line play from a group that looks pretty by SEC standards. I’m a Jefferson believer, but he can’t take all those sacks again. The coaches need to earn those lofty salaries, especially Crowton—and Miles. If they finish the Tennessee game 5-0, they may be able to beat a Florida team coming off a physical game against Alabama. Win this one and all they’ll have to do is beat Auburn, Alabama, Ole Miss, Arkansas and probably Florida again to cruise to the national championship game. I’m hoping Miles doesn’t get in the way of the team’s success. If he does, I wonder if LSU will look at Mullen. I’d really like to see what Mike Leach could do with this team, I couldn’t care less if he interviews in his bare feet.
Arkansas and Auburn. Ryan Mallett is one fine QB that made a few dumb throws at the worst times last season. If he can exorcize those demons, he could be GREAT! Auburn had a great offense, but can you name any of their starters? That’s good coaching. Neither team played defense last season. If this changes, either team could be really good.
Ole Miss and Mississippi State. Even with Masoli, I don’t know if Ole Miss has enough players on either side of the ball to play with the big boys this season. Mississippi State was surprisingly competitive in a lot of games last season with only a handful of players that could have started for the top half of the SEC. If a couple of those close losses turn into wins, they’ll go to a bowl this season. I wonder how long they’ll be able to keep Mullen.
Regarding the conference hopping:
Power-wise, I think the Big 12 will really be hurt by Nebraska’s defection. Besides losing one of their best teams, the loss of their championship game (for now) could be enough to keep them from sending any team to the championship game after this season. An undefeated champion may not make it.
The Pac 10 gains from the shuffling by being able to stage a championship game. One more win against a highly-ranked team will make their champion BCS-worthy. Power-wise, adding Utah and Colorado is a wash.
The Big 10 wins going away in the shuffling. Adding a strong Nebraska without taking a weaker team and a championship game is HUGE. Unless the teams beat up each other resulting in a two-loss champion, I expect to see the Big 10 battle the SEC for the next couple of BCS championships.
I hope you enjoyed this, whether you agree with any of it or not. Let me know what you think, either way.
Thanks and keep the power,
Bill Ellis
Bill.theallpowerful.ellis@gmail.com
Monday, August 30, 2010
Who’s Got the Power—Aug 23, 2010
I can’t wait for the games to begin. This is the first installment of my college football power ranking posts, based on my model. The teams are not “ranked” based other than performance, so there is on pre-season rankings, but there is a historical factor I’ll explain below.
My model is designed for the entire season to be played, so the results in the first few weeks may look strange. A big reason for this is that I don’t like teams playing weak opponents from what was known as 1-AA. Wins over these teams are barely rewarded, and losses to them bring severe punishment. With this being said, it’s still fun to look at where the teams are ranked throughout the season.
My system isn’t perfect, but my two highest rated teams after Dec. 5, 2009 did play for the BCS championship. Here’s how my final top 10 for 2009 looked:
1. ALABAMA 61.297
2. FLORIDA 49.027
3. TEXAS 45.96
4. CINCINNATI 42.665
5. OHIO ST 41.286
6. BOISE ST 36.873
7. OREGON 36.43
8. GA TECH 32.973
9. VIRGINIA TECH 32.73
10. OKLAHOMA 32.277
The main differences in my final rankings and the polls are that Florida and Texas switch places, Boise State isn’t ranked 3rd, and TCU and Iowa aren’t in the top 10 because their competition didn’t warrant it.
I get criticized for having the teams equally ranked starting the season, but I don’t care. If you don’t like this, feel free to stop reading now and never look at this again. Anyhow, I have entered my predictions through the regular season, and as much as it pains me to write this, Florida looks like it has an edge over Oklahoma in the BCS title game.
My predictions will change for two reasons, one I may guess wrong and VA Tech loses to Boise State while Oklahoma loses to Cincinnati. Also, I haven’t entered any teams to win or lose by 17 points or more yet.
We’ll see!
How this all works—warning this is TECHNICAL!
Teams are assigned points for wins that vary with their rankings and their opponent’s ranking. These points are adjusted upward if they win away from home and downward if they lose at home. The points are also adjusted upward if they win by 17points or more and downward for a loss of 17 points or more.
Then there is a historical bias adjustment which ranks the team’s conference’s performance over the previous four seasons. This bias rewards/punishes a team for playing that opponent. The totals are compiled by using the average of the teams’ RPI or Rating Percentage Index. To make these figures more relevant: 2009’s total counts 40%, 2008 is 30%, 2007 is 20% and 2006 is 10%.
The conferences are also compared to determine which has specifically has the strongest teams. To do this, the top six teams for the SEC are compared to the top six in the Big 10, the Big 12, the top five in the PAC 10, etc.
Because these averages are fluid from one year to the next, the conferences change positions. For 2009, the top divisions were the SEC-A, the PAC 10-A and the Big 10-A. For 2010, the top three are the SEC-A, the Big East-A and the Big 12-A. Teams within these divisions can also change depending on their performance over the past four years. For example, Arkansas has replaced Auburn in the SEC-A group based for 2010.
The effect of the bias is that the total points for a week are multiplied by a factor based on its opponent’s conference where if a team beats a member of the SEC-A group, its total is winning total is multiplied by a factor of 1.67—rewarding them for beating a historically strong opponent. If they lose to them, their losing total is multiplied by 0.33, reducing the effect of the loss for playing such a strong opponent.
Let’s look at three opening SEC games: Florida—Miami, OH, LSU—North Carolina and Vanderbilt—Northwestern. Since this is the opening week, all six teams are equally ranked, so the winners will receive 5 points and the losers will lose 5 points. If Florida wins, its 5 points is reduced to 1.9 points because Miami, OH’s is in the MAC conference which is the 2nd worst (14th) in big-time football. If LSU wins, its 5 points is increased to 6.3 points because the ACC has gained strength the last couple of years to rank 5th for 2010. If Vanderbilt wins, its 5 points is increased to 6.8 points because the Big 10 is ranked 4th. Miami OH’s and North Carolina’s -5 points are adjusted to -1.65, while Northwestern’s -5 points are adjusted to -4.55 since Vanderbilt is in the 7th ranked SEC-B group.
Thanks and keep the power—
Bill Ellis
Bill.theallpowerful.ellis@gmail.com
My model is designed for the entire season to be played, so the results in the first few weeks may look strange. A big reason for this is that I don’t like teams playing weak opponents from what was known as 1-AA. Wins over these teams are barely rewarded, and losses to them bring severe punishment. With this being said, it’s still fun to look at where the teams are ranked throughout the season.
My system isn’t perfect, but my two highest rated teams after Dec. 5, 2009 did play for the BCS championship. Here’s how my final top 10 for 2009 looked:
1. ALABAMA 61.297
2. FLORIDA 49.027
3. TEXAS 45.96
4. CINCINNATI 42.665
5. OHIO ST 41.286
6. BOISE ST 36.873
7. OREGON 36.43
8. GA TECH 32.973
9. VIRGINIA TECH 32.73
10. OKLAHOMA 32.277
The main differences in my final rankings and the polls are that Florida and Texas switch places, Boise State isn’t ranked 3rd, and TCU and Iowa aren’t in the top 10 because their competition didn’t warrant it.
I get criticized for having the teams equally ranked starting the season, but I don’t care. If you don’t like this, feel free to stop reading now and never look at this again. Anyhow, I have entered my predictions through the regular season, and as much as it pains me to write this, Florida looks like it has an edge over Oklahoma in the BCS title game.
My predictions will change for two reasons, one I may guess wrong and VA Tech loses to Boise State while Oklahoma loses to Cincinnati. Also, I haven’t entered any teams to win or lose by 17 points or more yet.
We’ll see!
How this all works—warning this is TECHNICAL!
Teams are assigned points for wins that vary with their rankings and their opponent’s ranking. These points are adjusted upward if they win away from home and downward if they lose at home. The points are also adjusted upward if they win by 17points or more and downward for a loss of 17 points or more.
Then there is a historical bias adjustment which ranks the team’s conference’s performance over the previous four seasons. This bias rewards/punishes a team for playing that opponent. The totals are compiled by using the average of the teams’ RPI or Rating Percentage Index. To make these figures more relevant: 2009’s total counts 40%, 2008 is 30%, 2007 is 20% and 2006 is 10%.
The conferences are also compared to determine which has specifically has the strongest teams. To do this, the top six teams for the SEC are compared to the top six in the Big 10, the Big 12, the top five in the PAC 10, etc.
Because these averages are fluid from one year to the next, the conferences change positions. For 2009, the top divisions were the SEC-A, the PAC 10-A and the Big 10-A. For 2010, the top three are the SEC-A, the Big East-A and the Big 12-A. Teams within these divisions can also change depending on their performance over the past four years. For example, Arkansas has replaced Auburn in the SEC-A group based for 2010.
The effect of the bias is that the total points for a week are multiplied by a factor based on its opponent’s conference where if a team beats a member of the SEC-A group, its total is winning total is multiplied by a factor of 1.67—rewarding them for beating a historically strong opponent. If they lose to them, their losing total is multiplied by 0.33, reducing the effect of the loss for playing such a strong opponent.
Let’s look at three opening SEC games: Florida—Miami, OH, LSU—North Carolina and Vanderbilt—Northwestern. Since this is the opening week, all six teams are equally ranked, so the winners will receive 5 points and the losers will lose 5 points. If Florida wins, its 5 points is reduced to 1.9 points because Miami, OH’s is in the MAC conference which is the 2nd worst (14th) in big-time football. If LSU wins, its 5 points is increased to 6.3 points because the ACC has gained strength the last couple of years to rank 5th for 2010. If Vanderbilt wins, its 5 points is increased to 6.8 points because the Big 10 is ranked 4th. Miami OH’s and North Carolina’s -5 points are adjusted to -1.65, while Northwestern’s -5 points are adjusted to -4.55 since Vanderbilt is in the 7th ranked SEC-B group.
Thanks and keep the power—
Bill Ellis
Bill.theallpowerful.ellis@gmail.com
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Who’s Got the Power?—at the halfway point?
This season has given us lots of great games so far with a few big surprises. Three of the preseason favorites are undefeated in Florida, Texas and Alabama; two spoilers may be in the way with Boise State and Cincinnati; and Iowa and Georgia Tech are lurking.
With the initial BCS rankings out, I find it very interesting that Florida and Alabama are ranked 1st and 2nd, respectively, by the computers. Florida made a big jump from 13th to 3rd last week after yanking LSU around. They and the refs continued their climb to 2nd this week with Virginia Tech’s loss. Alabama is a different story. I agree with everyone that they pass the eyeball test with flying colors, and no other team looks nearly as good right now. This doesn’t change the fact that two of their wins are over Florida International and North Texas-combined 2-10. Their opponents’ combined record is 22-22. This isn’t that bad but it’s not as good as Florida’s—17-13, Texas’s—20-18, or Iowa’s—an astounding 30-16.
Since the computers (and my model) can’t judge the pretty wins from the ugly ones, I’d like to know how Alabama is ranked so high. The only explanation is manipulation. The schedules of the front-runners have been pretty weak so far. Florida’s only impressive win is over LSU, and, as an LSU fan, I don’t know how impressive this really is. Alabama’s win over Virginia Tech may not turn out to be that impressive. None of their others count. Texas’s win over Texas Tech may turn out to be pretty good, but the win over 3-3 Oklahoma is the only other one worth mentioning. USC’s wins over CAL and Ohio State look good now, but they are lucky that Notre Dame has a winning record. None of their other opponents do. Iowa’s record really looks fantastic. How did they struggle so mightily with Northern Iowa and Arkansas State?
Now, I haven’t projected this, but if Alabama beats LSU, Florida and their other opponents, I do expect them to be at the top of these power rankings at the end of the season. Assuming both teams win out, I’m expecting Texas to edge Iowa for the 2nd spot since they will probably have more 17+ point victory margins.
Here’s who has the power this week:
1 IOWA 20.289 walloped Wisconsin
2 FLORIDA 19.0935 actually shouldn't have beaten Arkansas
3 GA TECH 15.0715 vandalized Virginia Tech
4 OREGON 15.012 idled
5 USC 14.924 knocked down Notre Dame
6 VIRGINIA TECH 13.906 gang-tackled by Georgia Tech
7 CINCINNATI 12.5775 sufficated South Florida
8 LSU 11.892 idled
9 ARKANSAS 9.5115 rerouted by the Refs
10 TEXAS 9.38 only won by 3 over Oklahoma
11 MIAMI 9.2525 centrifuged Central Florida
12 ALABAMA 8.658 soaked South Carolina
13 GEORGIA 5.906 vised down on Vanderbilt
14 TCU 5.8455 crumpled Colorado St
15 PITTSBURGH 5.6425 routed Rutgers
16 SOUTH FLORIDA 5.426 chained and dragged by Cincinnati
17 CALIFORNIA 5.2495 unleashed on UCLA
18 BOISE ST 4.5455 terrorized Tulsa
19 PENN ST 4.5085 mangled Minnesota
20 BYU 4.158 sanded San Diego St
21 UTAH 4.024 unglued UNLV
22 TENNESSEE 4.012 idled
23 NOTRE DAME 3.996 uglied by USC
24 WEST VIRGINIA 3.638 messed up Marshall
25 WISCONSIN 3.4545 was walloped by Iowa
26 TEXAS TECH 3.3355 knocked out Nebraska
27 OHIO ST 3.142 pummeled by Purdue
28 HOUSTON 3.0035 tore up Tulane
29 KANSAS 2.8185 collasped by Colorado
30 NAVY 2.786 smothered SMU
31 CENTRAL MICH 2.7635 wasted Western Michigan
32 MICHIGAN 2.7175 dealt Delaware St two defeats
33 BOSTON COLLEGE 2.7155 went cowboy on NC State
34 SOUTH CAROLINA 2.4735 adjourned by Alabama
35 OKLAHOMA 0.8115 teetered on upsetting Texas
36 OHIO UNIV 0.3375 mindlessly overwhelmed Miami (OH)
36 KENTUCKY 0.148 altered Auburn's plans
38 MINNESOTA 0.141 put down by Penn St
39 ARIZONA ST -0.6465 wore down Washington
40 CONNECTICUT -1.2045 lashed Louisville
A closer look at the South:
Can we all give a collective cheer for the SEC’s referees? Can we? Anyone?
I know these guys have a thankless job, and I don’t want to trade with any of them. What I do want is to know why the calls made are so inconsistent from squad to squad and game to game. If all of the squads are calling all of the games badly, but consistently, I could handle this better. The conference with the greatest fan support and revenue generation should have the best officiating, not the worst.
Bad calls have been going on for years, but just this year I’ve repeatedly seen home-team QBs given first downs on scrambles when they appear to be 1 yard or greater short, visiting QBs given horrible spots on their scrambles, undetected movement of offensive linemen, redefining the neutral zone, hits out of bounds favoring one team, defensive pass interference called when the receivers slow down for under-thrown passes and forcing contact with defenders even when the ball didn’t appear catchable, obvious offensive pass interference go uncalled (yeah you, Riley Cooper), phantom celebration calls, no celebration calls when the player looks like he’s sat in fire ants, and only about one offensive line holding call per team per game. There also was the personal foul called on Arkansas’s defensive lineman who was getting hit by Florida’s lineman and the grounding call against Virginia Tech when Taylor threw the ball far enough downfield but with his left hand. I don’t expect perfectly-called games, but the refs are missing calls my six year old son and wife, neither of whom know anything about the game, would get right.
Florida may be really good. They shouldn’t lose any games until the SEC championship. They should not have needed Cooper’s interference to score their only touchdown against LSU. They should not have needed 25 penalty yards on consecutive plays to set up the tying touchdown against Arkansas. They should not be the top-ranked team in the country.
Alabama is probably really good. Their QB is struggling. I expected this early in the season, but not now. If Tennessee, LSU or Florida can figure out how to slow down Mark Ingram, the Tide could be in trouble.
LSU. The Tigers are back in the top 10. They deserve to be there right now. They may finish in the top 10, and they may finish 5th in the West.
Defensively, they look better than at the start of the season, but they are only a little better than average nationally, and are worse than half of the teams in the SEC. There is some pass rush, but there aren’t any sacks. How is it that one week after LSU records ZERO sacks against Florida, Arkansas records SIX? If the defense can’t get better pressure on the quarterback, all six of our remaining opponents may eat us up with that gimmicky forward pass.
Offensively, being ranked 11th or 12th in the conference in nearly every major offensive category may be fine for some (like Vanderbilt fans), but I’m not too pleased with it. I may be the last one who’s not ready to shoot Jordan Jefferson, but I would like a little target practice with the offensive line. In the second halves against Georgia and Florida, the big guys were whipped. When they’re getting beat, Jefferson can’t get the ball to Lafell, Dickerson and Tolliver. The run blocking has been inconsistent. Now, the linemen haven’t been helped with this stupid no-huddle-look-to-the-sideline-for-audibles system being run. Keeping the offensive linemen in their stances for an additional 15-20 seconds before snapping the ball at this stage of the season is idiotic. Can you say “False Start”? Besides hurting the linemen, this system allows the defense to dictate the play-calling. Did anyone see how Alabama was switching their alignments while South Carolina was sending in their audibles with the same system? I can’t tell you how happy I was reading in the Advocate that the team will stick with this system. If the no-huddle isn’t working, try huddling. You can still call audibles before the linemen get into their stances. In addition, I hate a lot of the play-calling. Have we had a running play between the center and guard result in positive yardage this season? Why on some of these plays is Jefferson handing the ball to Scott six or seven yards behind the line of scrimmage and allowing the defense to build an impenetrable wall in the middle of the line? How many times has Holiday made it past the other side of the line in time to turn north and south? Why can’t Holiday cut up field behind the tackle like Dexter McCluster does? Why can’t Holiday catch a pass in a bubble screen? Why is it that after Jefferson finally completes a pass downfield, no more downfield passes are called until the final minutes of the game? Why at the end of the first half when there is time for a play or two to set up a score is the clock being wound down? Coaches, why are you hamstringing the players with the play-calling? As was suggested last season, maybe it’s time for Crowton to come down from the skybox and coach the players face-to-face. I, for one, expect more from the group of millionaires on the sideline.
Arkansas, South Carolina, Ole Miss and Kentucky. Where’d that defense come from, Arkansas? Even with the bad calls against you, you could have beaten Florida with a little better passing down the stretch by Mallett, and fewer drops by Childs. By the way, what were the refs reviewing on Childs’s touchdown? What was Verne Lundquest thinking when he asked if the pass might be incomplete? If Arkansas continues to play defense like this, they’re going to be a tough team to beat. Ole Miss, South Carolina and Kentucky are all dangerous when they’re not turning the ball over. Ole Miss’s defense against Alabama was outstanding.
Tennessee, Georgia and Auburn. Let me know if you can figure these teams out. Surprisingly, Crompton played well two weeks ago, Georgia can’t run the ball and Auburn won’t play defense.
I don’t know if Mississippi State will win any more games, but I won’t be surprised if they do. This is your grand daddy’s Vandy.
The ACC has been surprising me all season. Tyrod Taylor has had some fantastic games following some horrible games. Florida State and Miami are schizophrenic. Georgia Tech is looking great after looking so bad against Clemson and Miami. Virginia and Duke are looking much better now that they’re playing 1-A opponents. Maryland and Boston College?
Will South Florida bounce back from their first loss? Will Houston be able to maintain after struggling with Mississippi State and Tulane (for a half)? I expected more from Southern Miss and Louisiana Tech. I didn’t from the Sunbelt teams.
One non-south question, is any team in the Big 12 north any good?
My picks for the remainder of the season are strictly based on which team has the higher ranking. Here’s how the final ranking looks.
1 FLORIDA 40.9835
2 IOWA 30.461
3 TEXAS 30.404
4 LSU 29.404
5 GA TECH 28.2355
6 PITTSBURGH 26.8845
7 OREGON 26.832
8 CINCINNATI 22.1795
9 USC 20.476
10 MIAMI 19.9785
For those asking where Alabama is, LSU is ranked higher when the teams play. Unless something dramatic and weird occurs, I expect Alabama to beat LSU and everyone else they face and to be at the top of this ranking at the end of the season. I also expect Texas to win more games by sizable margins than Iowa and claim the 2nd position.
Keep the power flowing,
Bill “The All-Powerful” Ellis
This season has given us lots of great games so far with a few big surprises. Three of the preseason favorites are undefeated in Florida, Texas and Alabama; two spoilers may be in the way with Boise State and Cincinnati; and Iowa and Georgia Tech are lurking.
With the initial BCS rankings out, I find it very interesting that Florida and Alabama are ranked 1st and 2nd, respectively, by the computers. Florida made a big jump from 13th to 3rd last week after yanking LSU around. They and the refs continued their climb to 2nd this week with Virginia Tech’s loss. Alabama is a different story. I agree with everyone that they pass the eyeball test with flying colors, and no other team looks nearly as good right now. This doesn’t change the fact that two of their wins are over Florida International and North Texas-combined 2-10. Their opponents’ combined record is 22-22. This isn’t that bad but it’s not as good as Florida’s—17-13, Texas’s—20-18, or Iowa’s—an astounding 30-16.
Since the computers (and my model) can’t judge the pretty wins from the ugly ones, I’d like to know how Alabama is ranked so high. The only explanation is manipulation. The schedules of the front-runners have been pretty weak so far. Florida’s only impressive win is over LSU, and, as an LSU fan, I don’t know how impressive this really is. Alabama’s win over Virginia Tech may not turn out to be that impressive. None of their others count. Texas’s win over Texas Tech may turn out to be pretty good, but the win over 3-3 Oklahoma is the only other one worth mentioning. USC’s wins over CAL and Ohio State look good now, but they are lucky that Notre Dame has a winning record. None of their other opponents do. Iowa’s record really looks fantastic. How did they struggle so mightily with Northern Iowa and Arkansas State?
Now, I haven’t projected this, but if Alabama beats LSU, Florida and their other opponents, I do expect them to be at the top of these power rankings at the end of the season. Assuming both teams win out, I’m expecting Texas to edge Iowa for the 2nd spot since they will probably have more 17+ point victory margins.
Here’s who has the power this week:
1 IOWA 20.289 walloped Wisconsin
2 FLORIDA 19.0935 actually shouldn't have beaten Arkansas
3 GA TECH 15.0715 vandalized Virginia Tech
4 OREGON 15.012 idled
5 USC 14.924 knocked down Notre Dame
6 VIRGINIA TECH 13.906 gang-tackled by Georgia Tech
7 CINCINNATI 12.5775 sufficated South Florida
8 LSU 11.892 idled
9 ARKANSAS 9.5115 rerouted by the Refs
10 TEXAS 9.38 only won by 3 over Oklahoma
11 MIAMI 9.2525 centrifuged Central Florida
12 ALABAMA 8.658 soaked South Carolina
13 GEORGIA 5.906 vised down on Vanderbilt
14 TCU 5.8455 crumpled Colorado St
15 PITTSBURGH 5.6425 routed Rutgers
16 SOUTH FLORIDA 5.426 chained and dragged by Cincinnati
17 CALIFORNIA 5.2495 unleashed on UCLA
18 BOISE ST 4.5455 terrorized Tulsa
19 PENN ST 4.5085 mangled Minnesota
20 BYU 4.158 sanded San Diego St
21 UTAH 4.024 unglued UNLV
22 TENNESSEE 4.012 idled
23 NOTRE DAME 3.996 uglied by USC
24 WEST VIRGINIA 3.638 messed up Marshall
25 WISCONSIN 3.4545 was walloped by Iowa
26 TEXAS TECH 3.3355 knocked out Nebraska
27 OHIO ST 3.142 pummeled by Purdue
28 HOUSTON 3.0035 tore up Tulane
29 KANSAS 2.8185 collasped by Colorado
30 NAVY 2.786 smothered SMU
31 CENTRAL MICH 2.7635 wasted Western Michigan
32 MICHIGAN 2.7175 dealt Delaware St two defeats
33 BOSTON COLLEGE 2.7155 went cowboy on NC State
34 SOUTH CAROLINA 2.4735 adjourned by Alabama
35 OKLAHOMA 0.8115 teetered on upsetting Texas
36 OHIO UNIV 0.3375 mindlessly overwhelmed Miami (OH)
36 KENTUCKY 0.148 altered Auburn's plans
38 MINNESOTA 0.141 put down by Penn St
39 ARIZONA ST -0.6465 wore down Washington
40 CONNECTICUT -1.2045 lashed Louisville
A closer look at the South:
Can we all give a collective cheer for the SEC’s referees? Can we? Anyone?
I know these guys have a thankless job, and I don’t want to trade with any of them. What I do want is to know why the calls made are so inconsistent from squad to squad and game to game. If all of the squads are calling all of the games badly, but consistently, I could handle this better. The conference with the greatest fan support and revenue generation should have the best officiating, not the worst.
Bad calls have been going on for years, but just this year I’ve repeatedly seen home-team QBs given first downs on scrambles when they appear to be 1 yard or greater short, visiting QBs given horrible spots on their scrambles, undetected movement of offensive linemen, redefining the neutral zone, hits out of bounds favoring one team, defensive pass interference called when the receivers slow down for under-thrown passes and forcing contact with defenders even when the ball didn’t appear catchable, obvious offensive pass interference go uncalled (yeah you, Riley Cooper), phantom celebration calls, no celebration calls when the player looks like he’s sat in fire ants, and only about one offensive line holding call per team per game. There also was the personal foul called on Arkansas’s defensive lineman who was getting hit by Florida’s lineman and the grounding call against Virginia Tech when Taylor threw the ball far enough downfield but with his left hand. I don’t expect perfectly-called games, but the refs are missing calls my six year old son and wife, neither of whom know anything about the game, would get right.
Florida may be really good. They shouldn’t lose any games until the SEC championship. They should not have needed Cooper’s interference to score their only touchdown against LSU. They should not have needed 25 penalty yards on consecutive plays to set up the tying touchdown against Arkansas. They should not be the top-ranked team in the country.
Alabama is probably really good. Their QB is struggling. I expected this early in the season, but not now. If Tennessee, LSU or Florida can figure out how to slow down Mark Ingram, the Tide could be in trouble.
LSU. The Tigers are back in the top 10. They deserve to be there right now. They may finish in the top 10, and they may finish 5th in the West.
Defensively, they look better than at the start of the season, but they are only a little better than average nationally, and are worse than half of the teams in the SEC. There is some pass rush, but there aren’t any sacks. How is it that one week after LSU records ZERO sacks against Florida, Arkansas records SIX? If the defense can’t get better pressure on the quarterback, all six of our remaining opponents may eat us up with that gimmicky forward pass.
Offensively, being ranked 11th or 12th in the conference in nearly every major offensive category may be fine for some (like Vanderbilt fans), but I’m not too pleased with it. I may be the last one who’s not ready to shoot Jordan Jefferson, but I would like a little target practice with the offensive line. In the second halves against Georgia and Florida, the big guys were whipped. When they’re getting beat, Jefferson can’t get the ball to Lafell, Dickerson and Tolliver. The run blocking has been inconsistent. Now, the linemen haven’t been helped with this stupid no-huddle-look-to-the-sideline-for-audibles system being run. Keeping the offensive linemen in their stances for an additional 15-20 seconds before snapping the ball at this stage of the season is idiotic. Can you say “False Start”? Besides hurting the linemen, this system allows the defense to dictate the play-calling. Did anyone see how Alabama was switching their alignments while South Carolina was sending in their audibles with the same system? I can’t tell you how happy I was reading in the Advocate that the team will stick with this system. If the no-huddle isn’t working, try huddling. You can still call audibles before the linemen get into their stances. In addition, I hate a lot of the play-calling. Have we had a running play between the center and guard result in positive yardage this season? Why on some of these plays is Jefferson handing the ball to Scott six or seven yards behind the line of scrimmage and allowing the defense to build an impenetrable wall in the middle of the line? How many times has Holiday made it past the other side of the line in time to turn north and south? Why can’t Holiday cut up field behind the tackle like Dexter McCluster does? Why can’t Holiday catch a pass in a bubble screen? Why is it that after Jefferson finally completes a pass downfield, no more downfield passes are called until the final minutes of the game? Why at the end of the first half when there is time for a play or two to set up a score is the clock being wound down? Coaches, why are you hamstringing the players with the play-calling? As was suggested last season, maybe it’s time for Crowton to come down from the skybox and coach the players face-to-face. I, for one, expect more from the group of millionaires on the sideline.
Arkansas, South Carolina, Ole Miss and Kentucky. Where’d that defense come from, Arkansas? Even with the bad calls against you, you could have beaten Florida with a little better passing down the stretch by Mallett, and fewer drops by Childs. By the way, what were the refs reviewing on Childs’s touchdown? What was Verne Lundquest thinking when he asked if the pass might be incomplete? If Arkansas continues to play defense like this, they’re going to be a tough team to beat. Ole Miss, South Carolina and Kentucky are all dangerous when they’re not turning the ball over. Ole Miss’s defense against Alabama was outstanding.
Tennessee, Georgia and Auburn. Let me know if you can figure these teams out. Surprisingly, Crompton played well two weeks ago, Georgia can’t run the ball and Auburn won’t play defense.
I don’t know if Mississippi State will win any more games, but I won’t be surprised if they do. This is your grand daddy’s Vandy.
The ACC has been surprising me all season. Tyrod Taylor has had some fantastic games following some horrible games. Florida State and Miami are schizophrenic. Georgia Tech is looking great after looking so bad against Clemson and Miami. Virginia and Duke are looking much better now that they’re playing 1-A opponents. Maryland and Boston College?
Will South Florida bounce back from their first loss? Will Houston be able to maintain after struggling with Mississippi State and Tulane (for a half)? I expected more from Southern Miss and Louisiana Tech. I didn’t from the Sunbelt teams.
One non-south question, is any team in the Big 12 north any good?
My picks for the remainder of the season are strictly based on which team has the higher ranking. Here’s how the final ranking looks.
1 FLORIDA 40.9835
2 IOWA 30.461
3 TEXAS 30.404
4 LSU 29.404
5 GA TECH 28.2355
6 PITTSBURGH 26.8845
7 OREGON 26.832
8 CINCINNATI 22.1795
9 USC 20.476
10 MIAMI 19.9785
For those asking where Alabama is, LSU is ranked higher when the teams play. Unless something dramatic and weird occurs, I expect Alabama to beat LSU and everyone else they face and to be at the top of this ranking at the end of the season. I also expect Texas to win more games by sizable margins than Iowa and claim the 2nd position.
Keep the power flowing,
Bill “The All-Powerful” Ellis
Friday, October 2, 2009
Who's Got The Power? for Oct. 3 games
The new column should be posted at Sportschat.com shortly. Like last week, it may also be posted at LSU's site affiliated with ESPN, Eye On The Tigers.com.
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Latest "Who's Got The Power?" posted at Sportschatplace.com
If you can't follow the link, go to the site, click on College Football, then look for the first under Bill's Power Rankings 2009.
Thursday, August 13, 2009
The latest installment of "Who's Got The Power?" is
posted at the Sports Chat Place. I've also included my pre-season thoughts on the SEC. Leave a comment so I'll know you've read it.
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
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