Sept. 28--Week 5's Power Rankings

Lots of movement in the top half of the rankings, but the biggest mover was Ole Miss jumping from 39th last week to 23rd this week with its win over Florida. Those close to me know that I am no fan of Houston Nutt, but I do like that the team can sometimes win despite his best efforts.

Seven new teams, including 5 from the ACC. Fl State is back, along with Maryland, California, Boston College, GA TECH, Duke and Cincinnati.

Bye-bye to East Carolina, Colorado, and Clemson as they leave the top 40.


HOW THE RANKING WORKS:

Wins over teams ranked 1-10 earn 5 points, teams ranked 11-20 earn4 points, teams ranked 21-30 earn 3 points, teams ranked 31-40 earn 2 points, teams ranked 41st and higher earn 1 point, and wins over 1-AA teams earn 0.5 points. Additional points are earned if games are earned if the games are won by a controlling margin of 17 points or greater. The number of points vary with the relative ranking of the opponents. A 17 point margin over a 1-AA team earns an additional 0.25 point. Since I believe every major team should beat every 1-AA team by over 17 points every time, a win over a 1-AA team that is within 17 points results in 0.5 points being deducted.

Losses to teams ranked 1-10 lose 1 point, to teams ranked 11-20 lose 2 points, teams ranked 21-30 lose 3 points, teams ranked 31-40 lose 4 points, and teams ranked 41st and worse lose 5 points. Teams that lose to 1-AA teams lose 10 points. Additional points are lost by teams that lose their games by 17 points or more.

The subjective portion of this ranking is the assignment of preseason points. The following teams were assigned 5 points for being projected as top 10 teams: CLEMSON, FLORIDA, GEORGIA, LSU. MISSOURI. OHIO ST, OKLAHOMA, USC, VIRGINIA TECH, and WEST VIRGINIA.

The next 10 teams were assigned 4 points and projected to be ranked between 11-20: AUBURN, MICHIGAN, OREGON, PENN ST, RUTGERS, SOUTH FLORIDA, TENNESSEE, TEXAS, WAKE FOREST and WISCONSIN.

Teams projected between 21-30 were assigned 3 points: ARIZONA ST, BOISE ST, BYU, CINCINNATI, FLORIDA ATLANTIC, FRESNO ST, ILLINOIS, KANSAS and UTAH.

The final teams in the preseason top 40 were assigned 2 points: CALIFORNIA, COLORADO, CONNECTICUT, FLORIDA ST, LOUISVILLE, MISSISSIPPI ST, NEBRASKA, SOUTH CAROLINA, TEXAS TECH and UCLA. The remaining 80 teams were assigned 1 point.

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RANKING AS OF SEPTEMBER 28 & LAST WEEK’S GAME

Current rank----------Cur.-----Prev.---Prev.-------Last week's ---Opp.---------17 Pt.
Rank-------------------Pts------Rank----Pts----------Opp.----------Rnk----W/L--Mar

1 ALABAMA--------------19----------2-----15----------GEORGIA------12-------W----N
2 TEXAS------------------18----------1-----16----------ARK-------------60-------W----Y
3 OKLAHOMA-----------16.75-----12----10.75-------TCU-------------17-------W----Y
4 VANDERBILT---------14----------3-----14----------OPEN
4 UTAH-------------------14----------3-----14----------WEBER ST---200------W----N
6 LSU----------------------12.75------9-----11.75------MISS ST--------98------W----N
6 PENN ST---------------12.75-----12-----10.75------ILLINOIS------34-------W----N
6 MISSOURI------------12.75-----12-----12.75-------OPEN
6 SO FLORIDA----------12.75-----12-----10.75------NC ST-----------89------W----Y
6 BYU---------------------12.75-----12-----12.75-------OPEN
11 GEORGIA--------------9.75------12------10.75-----ALABAMA------2-------L-----N
11 CONNECTICUT-------9.75-----17------8.75-------L'VILLE-------46-------W----N
13 AUBURN---------------9---------20-----8-----------TENN----------64-------W----N
13 FRESNO ST------------9---------20-----8-----------UCLA----------89-------W----N
15 KENTUCKY------------8.75-----24-----6.75-------W. KENT------88-------W----Y
15 OKLAHOMA ST-------8.75-----24-----6.75-------TROY----------76-------W----Y
15 TULSA-------------------8.75-----20-----8-----------C. ARK------200-------W----Y
15 BOISE ST---------------8.75-----17------8.75-------OPEN
15 BALL ST-----------------8.75-----24-----6.75-------KENT ST----116-------W-----Y
20 WISCONSIN-----------8----------5----13-----------MICH---------77--------L-----N
20 USC----------------------8----------5----13-----------ORG ST-------81--------L-----N
20 OREGON---------------8---------29-----6----------WASH ST----116-------W-----Y
23 MISSISSIPPI-----------7.75-----39-----2.75------FLORIDA-----10-------W----N
23 N'WESTERN-----------7.75-----24-----6.75------IOWA---------46-------W-----N
23 VIRGINIA TECH------7.75-----34-----3.75------NEB------------20-------W----N
26 FLORIDA---------------7---------10----11----------MISS-----------39-------L------N
27 OHIO ST----------------6.75-----34-----3.75------MINN---------29-------W-----N
28 TEXAS TECH----------6.5------28-----6.5--------OPEN
29 WAKE FOREST-------6---------10-----11----------NAVY---------78-------L------N
30 MICH ST----------------5---------33-----4----------IND-----------66-------W-----N
31 KANSAS-----------------4.75-----32------4.75------OPEN
32 FLORIDA ST-----------4.5------43-------1.5-------COLO---------31-------W------Y
33 NEBRASKA-------------4--------20------8----------VA TECH----34--------L-----N
34 TCU-----------------------3.75----34------8.75------OKLA---------12-------L-------Y
34 AIR FORCE--------------3.75----34------3.75------OPEN
36 MARYLAND-------------3--------44------1----------CLEMSON--40-------W-----N
36 ARIZONA----------------3--------38------3----------OPEN
38 MINNESOTA-----------2--------29------6----------OHIO ST----34-------L------N
38 CALIFORNIA-----------2--------51-------0----------COLO ST----74-------W-----Y
40 ILLINOIS----------------1.75----34-------3.75------PENN ST----12--------L-----N
40 BOSTON COLLEGE---1.75----44-------1----------RH IS-------200-------W-----Y
40 GA TECH----------------1.75----42-------1.75-------OPEN
40 DUKE--------------------1.75----54-----(-0.25)------VIRGINIA--86-------W-----Y
40 CINCINNATI-----------1.75----46------0.75--------AKRON-----89-------W----N

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

The Pac 10's average opponent ranking is 58.3 (since few conference games have been played, watch for this average to increase) The SEC's average is 63.4 (this average should drop with more conference play), The SUNBELT's average is 65.8 (since its members PAY FOR PLAY, this average should start to plum-met soon), The MWC's average is 81.8 (it's members have beaten up on Pac-10 teams lately making its average look very bad, unfortunately, conference play shouldn't move the average very much), the Big 12's average IS A HORRIBLE 91.3 (their average will start to drop rapidly with the start of conference games, but come on--48 games played with an OPP AVG OF 91.3????)

UCLA, OREGON STATE, VANDERBILT, NORTH TEXAS and TEXAS have played the hardest schedules so far.

TEXAS TECH, TEXAS A&M, SAN DIEGO STATE, NORTHERN ILLINOIS and CLEMSON have played the easiest schedules.

41 teams still haven't played a 1-AA team including 8 Pac-10 teams. I guess I should be giving credit to the Pac-10, but its opponent ranking is only 4 points better than the SEC's where 7 teams have played 1-AA teams all ranked 200 here. This conference truly schedules horrible competition, and the teams are losing to this competition. The decision for the conference to play all other conference members in a 12-game season looks more like a cop-out than an effort to bolster the teams' strength of schedule.

AVERAGE CONFERENCE MEMBER'S RANKING: SEC--31.25; BIG 12--37.25; BIG 10--41.09; BIG EAST--51.75; ACC--52.08; MWC, PAC 10 AND WAC IN THE 60s, CONF USA AT 70, AND THE REST ARE IN THE 80s OR HIGHER.

Week 4's Power Rankings

Well, I was wrong. It's still moving time on this poll. conference opponents change the competitve landscape, as USC found out last night (this ranking DOES NOT reflect USC's loss to Oregon St). I'm still trying to figure out the spacing issues in pasting the ranking from Excel, but here is an expansion to help show the weekly change of points.


AGAIN, HOW THE RANKING WORKS:
Wins over teams ranked 1-10 earn 5 points, teams ranked 11-20 earn4 points, teams ranked 21-30 earn 3 points, teams ranked 31-40 earn 2 points, teams ranked 41st and higher earn 1 point, and wins over 1-AA teams earn 0.5 points. Additional points are earned if games are earned if the games are won by a controlling margin of 17 points or greater. The number of points vary with the relative ranking of the opponents. A 17 point margin over a 1-AA team earns an additional 0.25 point. Since I believe every major team should beat every 1-AA team by over 17 points every time, a win over a 1-AA team that is within 17 points results in 0.5 points being deducted.

Losses to teams ranked 1-10 lose 1 point, to teams ranked 11-20 lose 2 points, teams ranked 21-30 lose 3 points, teams ranked 31-40 lose 4 points, and teams ranked 41st and worse lose 5 points. Teams that lose to 1-AA teams lose 10 points. Additional points are lost by teams that lose their games by 17 points or more.


SEPTEMBER 21 & LAST WEEK’S GAME

Current rank----------Cur.-----Prev.---Prev.-------Last week's ---Opp.---------17 Pt.

Rank-------------------Pts------Rank----Pts----------Opp.----------Rnk----W/L--Mar

1 TEXAS-------------------16----------1-----14----------RICE---------54-------W-------Y
2 ALABAMA--------------15----------3-----13----------ARK----------45-------W-------Y
3 VANDERBILT---------14----------6-----12----------MISS---------38------W-------N
3 UTAH-------------------14----------7------11----------AIR FOR.---29-------W------N
5 WISCONSIN----------13-----------3-----13----------OPEN
5 USC---------------------13-----------3-----13----------OPEN
7 MISSOURI------------12.75-------8-----10.75-----BUFF.--------102------W-------Y
7 BYU---------------------12.75-------8-----10.75-----WYOMING---84------W-------Y
9 LSU---------------------11.75------19-------7.75-----AUBURN------11------W------N
10 FLORIDA-------------11----------13-------9--------TENN---------45-------W-------Y
10 WAKE FOREST-----11----------13-------9---------FL ST---------40-------W------N
12 GEORGIA------------10.75------16-------8.75-----ARIZ ST------53-------W------Y
12 PENN ST-------------10.75------16----8.75--------TEMPLE-----82-------W------Y
12 OKLAHOMA--------10.75-------8----10.75--------OPEN
12 SO FLORIDA--------10.75------12-----9.75-------FL INT------109-------W------N
16 E CAROLINA---------9-----------1-----14----------NC ST-------110--------L-------N
17 CONNECTICUT------8.75-----19-----7.75-------BAYLOR------70-------W------N
17 TCU---------------------8.75-----22-----6.75-------SMU---------110-------W-------Y
17 BOISE ST--------------8.75-----29-----4.75-------OREGON-----13-------W------N
20 AUBURN--------------8---------11-----10----------LSU------------19-------L-------N
20 NEBRASKA-----------8---------18-----8----------OPEN
20 TULSA-----------------8---------25-----6----------NEW MEX----91-------W------Y
20 FRESNO ST-----------8---------21-----7----------TOLEDO------75-------W------N
24 KENTUCKY-----------6.75-----22-----6.75------OPEN
24 N'WESTERN----------6.75-----26-----5.75------OHIO U------98-------W------N
24 OKLAHOMA ST------6.75-----22-----6.75------OPEN
24 BALL ST----------------6.75-----29-----4.75------INDIANA----42-------W------Y
28 TEXAS TECH----------6.5------26-----5.75------MASS-------200-------W------Y
29 MINNESOTA----------6---------33-----4----------FL ATL-------96-------W------Y
29 OREGON---------------6---------13-----9----------BOISE ST----29-------L-------N
31 COLORADO------------5---------33-----4----------W VIRG------47-------W------N
32 KANSAS----------------4.75-----33-----4----------Sam Hous--200-------W------Y
33 MICH ST---------------4---------50-----1---------- N DAME-----33-------W-------Y
34 OHIO ST---------------3.75------47-----1.75------TROY---------42-------W------Y
34 ILLINOIS--------------3.75------38-----3.75------OPEN
34 VIRGINIA TECH-----3.75------42-----2.75------N CAR--------41-------W------N
34 AIR FORCE------------3.75------29-----4.75-----UTAH----------7-------L-------N
38 ARIZONA--------------3----------50-----1----------UCLA---------68-------W------Y
39 MISSISSIPPI----------2.75------38-----3.75------VANDY--------6-------L-------N
40 CLEMSON-------------2.5-------47-----1.75-------SC ST-------200------W-------Y

Week 3's Power Rankings

Let me stress that this power ranking is not a ranking of which teams I think are the best. This is just a look at how the teams have fared so far.

The teams are starting to become entrenched at the top and at the bottom of the rankings. It's still hard to judge since several teams haven't had their first open dates yet, and there are still a lot more 1-AA teams on the schedule. As a matter of fact, after three possible games, 55 teams (45.8%) of the 1-A teams still haven't played a 1-AA team. What are you waiting for????

Florida State has earned special distinction by having already played 2 1-AA teams--and they had the first week of the season open. Way to go. I wish I was a season-ticket holder.


SEPT 14 RANKINGS

RANK
1 TEXAS------------------------------14
1 EAST CAROLINA------------------14
3 ALABAMA-------------------------13
3 WISCONSIN-----------------------13
3 USC---------------------------------13
6 VANDERBILT----------------------12
7 UTAH-------------------------------11
8 OKLAHOMA-----------------------10.75
8 MISSOURI-------------------------10.75
8 BYU---------------------------------10.75
11 AUBURN---------------------------10
12 SOUTH FLORIDA--------------------9.75
13 FLORIDA-----------------------------9
13 WAKE FOREST----------------------9
13 OREGON----------------------------9
16 GEORGIA----------------------------8.75
16 PENN ST-----------------------------8.75
18 NEBRASKA--------------------------8
19 LSU-----------------------------------7.75
19 CONNECTICUT----------------------7.75
21 FRESNO ST--------------------------7
22 KENTUCKY---------------------------6.75
22 OKLAHOMA ST----------------------6.75
22 TCU-----------------------------------6.75
25 TULSA--------------------------------6
26 IOWA---------------------------------5.75
26 NORTHWESTERN--------------------5.75
26 TEXAS TECH--------------------------5.75
29 KANSAS ST---------------------------4.75
29 AIR FORCE----------------------------4.75
29 BOISE ST------------------------------4.75
29 BALL ST-------------------------------4.75
33 MINNESOTA-------------------------4
33 KANSAS------------------------------4
33 COLORADO--------------------------4
33 SOUTHERN MISS--------------------4
33 NOTRE DAME------------------------4
38 MISSISSIPPI--------------------------3.75
38 ILLINOIS------------------------------3.75
40 FLORIDA ST--------------------------3.5

I'm glad we're starting to really get into conference play because I am ready to see some of these pretenders (Florida St) get off my top 40.

Power Rankings after Week 2

It's still way too early to fairly judge any team, but we can at least see what beating two 1-A teams does. We can also see who is playing tougher schedules. So far, UCLA, Rutgers, Tulane, East Carolina and Fresno State have played the toughest schedules.

So far, three conferences stand way above the rest regarding average team ranking. The SEC's ranking is 30.92, the Big 12 is 31.83, and the Big 10 is 37.18. The Pac 10's average ranking is 54.1, and no other conference is below 61.

On the flip side, the Pac 10's avg opponent ranking is 52.62, the SEC's is 74.49, The Big 12 is 85.9, and all of the rest are too awful to mention.

The standings are:


SEPT 8 RANKINGS
RANK
1 TEXAS-------------------------14
2 EAST CAROLINA-------------------------13
3 ALABAMA-------------------------11
4 AUBURN-------------------------9
4 FLORIDA-------------------------9
4 FRESNO ST-------------------------9
4 UTAH-------------------------9
4 WAKE FOREST-------------------------9
9 MISSOURI-------------------------8.75
9 OKLAHOMA-------------------------8.75
11 OREGON-------------------------8
11 WISCONSIN-------------------------8
13 GEORGIA-------------------------7.75
14 KANSAS-------------------------7
14 USC-------------------------7
14 VANDERBILT-------------------------7
17 OHIO ST-------------------------6.75
17 PENN ST-------------------------6.75
19 ARIZONA-------------------------6
19 NEBRASKA-------------------------6
19 OKLAHOMA ST-------------------------6
19 TULSA-------------------------6
19 UCLA-------------------------6
24 ARIZONA ST-------------------------5.75
24 CONNECTICUT-------------------------5.75
24 KENTUCKY-------------------------5.75
24 LSU-------------------------5.75
24 SOUTH FLORIDA-------------------------5.75
29 CALIFORNIA-------------------------5
29 NORTHWESTERN-------------------------5
29 RICE-------------------------5
32 BYU-------------------------4.75
32 GA TECH-------------------------4.75
32 KANSAS ST-------------------------4.75
32 TCU-------------------------4.75
36 COLORADO-------------------------4.5
37 MINNESOTA-------------------------4
38 AIR FORCE-------------------------3.75
38 BOISE ST-------------------------3.75
38 IOWA-------------------------3.75
38 IOWA ST-------------------------3.75
38 TEXAS TECH-------------------------3.75

Power Rankings after the first week

Man, some of the teams in my preseason rankings looked awful--Tennessee, Clemson, Michigan. And there were some pleasant surprises like UCLA and ECU.


SEPT 1 RANKINGS

RANK
1 ALABAMA--------------------10
2 FRESNO ST---------------------9
2 TEXAS---------------------9
4 MISSOURI--------------------8
5 FLORIDA--------------------7
5 USC--------------------7
5 UTAH--------------------7
8 AUBURN--------------------6
8 EAST CAROLINA--------------------6
8 OREGON--------------------6
8 UCLA--------------------6
8 WAKE FOREST--------------------6
8 WISCONSIN--------------------6
14 GEORGIA--------------------5.75
14 LSU--------------------5.75
14 OHIO ST--------------------5.75
14 OKLAHOMA--------------------5.75
14 WEST VIRGINIA--------------------5.75
19 KANSAS--------------------5
19 KENTUCKY--------------------5
21 PENN ST--------------------4.75
21 SOUTH FLORIDA--------------------4.75
23 ARIZONA--------------------4
23 BOSTON COLLEGE--------------------4
23 COLORADO--------------------4
23 KANSAS ST--------------------4
23 MISSISSIPPI--------------------4
23 NEBRASKA--------------------4
23 NORTHWESTERN--------------------4
23 OKLAHOMA ST--------------------4
23 RICE--------------------4
23 SOUTH CAROLINA--------------------4
23 SOUTHERN MISS--------------------4
23 TCU--------------------4
23 TEMPLE--------------------4
23 TULSA--------------------4
23 UTEP--------------------4
23 VANDERBILT--------------------4
39 ARIZONA ST--------------------3.75
39 BOISE ST--------------------3.75
39 BYU--------------------3.75
39 CINCINNATI--------------------3.75

With so many teams playing sub-par competition, you can't accurately judge anything about any team yet.

Who's Got the Power?

It's been a while, but I've been working on something. A way of ranking which teams have played the best against the best. A Power Ranking.

I've already changed this several times which is why I'm just now writing about it, but there are three major factors. The first is the pre-season ranking. The top ten teams were given 5 points, and all tied at 1st. The next 10 had 4 points and were tied at 11th. 3 points and 21st. 2 points and 31st. The final 80 teams had 1 point and were tied at 41st.

The next portion is points awarded and subtracted for wins and losses. The amounts awarded and subtracted vary with the teams weekly comparative ranking, including whether or not a team is 1-AA. Teams lose more points from losses than they'll gain from wins. This doesn't matter because the teams with most wins over ranked teams and/or with the most lopsided victories will rise towards the top of the ranking.

The final portion is winning or losing margin. Additional points are added or subtracted if there is a winning margin of 17 or more points. I picked 17 because it represents a margin greater than two touchdowns which should represent control over the opponent.

One aspect of this ranking is that playing 1-AA teams is not rewarded. Teams will not receive more than 0.5 points for the win. I expect teams to beat 1-AA teams by over 17 points, but I will only reward those teams 0.25 points for doing so. I did this because I do not want to value a win over a 1-AA team over a win over a 1-A team. If a team does not win by 17 or more points over a 1-AA team, the 1-A team gets 0.5 points deducted. If a 1-A team loses to a 1-AA team, they have 10 points deducted.

The last point is open dates. No points are added or deducted for open dates. Teams that have early open dates have slipped in the rankings, but this should even out through out the season.

The top 40:


PRESEASON RANKINGS

RANK POINTS


1 CLEMSON----------------------------5
1 FLORIDA-----------------------------5
1 GEORGIA----------------------------5
1 LSU-----------------------------------5
1 MISSOURI---------------------------5
1 OHIO ST--------------------------5
1 OKLAHOMA--------------------------5
1 USC--------------------------5
1 VIRGINIA TECH--------------------------5
1 WEST VIRGINIA--------------------------5
11 AUBURN--------------------------4
11 MICHIGAN--------------------------4
11 OREGON--------------------------4
11 PENN ST--------------------------4
11 RUTGERS--------------------------4
11 SOUTH FLORIDA--------------------------4
11 TENNESSEE--------------------------4
11 TEXAS--------------------------4
11 WAKE FOREST--------------------------4
11 WISCONSIN--------------------------4
21 ALABAMA--------------------------3
21 ARIZONA ST--------------------------3
21 BOISE ST--------------------------3
21 BYU--------------------------3
21 CINCINNATI--------------------------3
21 FLORIDA ATLANTIC--------------------------3
21 FRESNO ST--------------------------3
21 ILLINOIS--------------------------3
21 KANSAS--------------------------3
21 UTAH--------------------------3
31 CALIFORNIA--------------------------2
31 COLORADO--------------------------2
31 CONNECTICUT--------------------------2
31 FLORIDA ST--------------------------2
31 LOUISVILLE--------------------------2
31 MISSISSIPPI ST--------------------------2
31 NEBRASKA--------------------------2
31 SOUTH CAROLINA--------------------------2
31 TEXAS TECH--------------------------2
31 UCLA--------------------------2