Who’s Got the Power?—at the halfway point?

This season has given us lots of great games so far with a few big surprises. Three of the preseason favorites are undefeated in Florida, Texas and Alabama; two spoilers may be in the way with Boise State and Cincinnati; and Iowa and Georgia Tech are lurking.

With the initial BCS rankings out, I find it very interesting that Florida and Alabama are ranked 1st and 2nd, respectively, by the computers. Florida made a big jump from 13th to 3rd last week after yanking LSU around. They and the refs continued their climb to 2nd this week with Virginia Tech’s loss. Alabama is a different story. I agree with everyone that they pass the eyeball test with flying colors, and no other team looks nearly as good right now. This doesn’t change the fact that two of their wins are over Florida International and North Texas-combined 2-10. Their opponents’ combined record is 22-22. This isn’t that bad but it’s not as good as Florida’s—17-13, Texas’s—20-18, or Iowa’s—an astounding 30-16.

Since the computers (and my model) can’t judge the pretty wins from the ugly ones, I’d like to know how Alabama is ranked so high. The only explanation is manipulation. The schedules of the front-runners have been pretty weak so far. Florida’s only impressive win is over LSU, and, as an LSU fan, I don’t know how impressive this really is. Alabama’s win over Virginia Tech may not turn out to be that impressive. None of their others count. Texas’s win over Texas Tech may turn out to be pretty good, but the win over 3-3 Oklahoma is the only other one worth mentioning. USC’s wins over CAL and Ohio State look good now, but they are lucky that Notre Dame has a winning record. None of their other opponents do. Iowa’s record really looks fantastic. How did they struggle so mightily with Northern Iowa and Arkansas State?

Now, I haven’t projected this, but if Alabama beats LSU, Florida and their other opponents, I do expect them to be at the top of these power rankings at the end of the season. Assuming both teams win out, I’m expecting Texas to edge Iowa for the 2nd spot since they will probably have more 17+ point victory margins.

Here’s who has the power this week:

1 IOWA 20.289 walloped Wisconsin
2 FLORIDA 19.0935 actually shouldn't have beaten Arkansas
3 GA TECH 15.0715 vandalized Virginia Tech
4 OREGON 15.012 idled
5 USC 14.924 knocked down Notre Dame
6 VIRGINIA TECH 13.906 gang-tackled by Georgia Tech
7 CINCINNATI 12.5775 sufficated South Florida
8 LSU 11.892 idled
9 ARKANSAS 9.5115 rerouted by the Refs
10 TEXAS 9.38 only won by 3 over Oklahoma
11 MIAMI 9.2525 centrifuged Central Florida
12 ALABAMA 8.658 soaked South Carolina
13 GEORGIA 5.906 vised down on Vanderbilt
14 TCU 5.8455 crumpled Colorado St
15 PITTSBURGH 5.6425 routed Rutgers
16 SOUTH FLORIDA 5.426 chained and dragged by Cincinnati
17 CALIFORNIA 5.2495 unleashed on UCLA
18 BOISE ST 4.5455 terrorized Tulsa
19 PENN ST 4.5085 mangled Minnesota
20 BYU 4.158 sanded San Diego St
21 UTAH 4.024 unglued UNLV
22 TENNESSEE 4.012 idled
23 NOTRE DAME 3.996 uglied by USC
24 WEST VIRGINIA 3.638 messed up Marshall
25 WISCONSIN 3.4545 was walloped by Iowa
26 TEXAS TECH 3.3355 knocked out Nebraska
27 OHIO ST 3.142 pummeled by Purdue
28 HOUSTON 3.0035 tore up Tulane
29 KANSAS 2.8185 collasped by Colorado
30 NAVY 2.786 smothered SMU
31 CENTRAL MICH 2.7635 wasted Western Michigan
32 MICHIGAN 2.7175 dealt Delaware St two defeats
33 BOSTON COLLEGE 2.7155 went cowboy on NC State
34 SOUTH CAROLINA 2.4735 adjourned by Alabama
35 OKLAHOMA 0.8115 teetered on upsetting Texas
36 OHIO UNIV 0.3375 mindlessly overwhelmed Miami (OH)
36 KENTUCKY 0.148 altered Auburn's plans
38 MINNESOTA 0.141 put down by Penn St
39 ARIZONA ST -0.6465 wore down Washington
40 CONNECTICUT -1.2045 lashed Louisville


A closer look at the South:

Can we all give a collective cheer for the SEC’s referees? Can we? Anyone?

I know these guys have a thankless job, and I don’t want to trade with any of them. What I do want is to know why the calls made are so inconsistent from squad to squad and game to game. If all of the squads are calling all of the games badly, but consistently, I could handle this better. The conference with the greatest fan support and revenue generation should have the best officiating, not the worst.

Bad calls have been going on for years, but just this year I’ve repeatedly seen home-team QBs given first downs on scrambles when they appear to be 1 yard or greater short, visiting QBs given horrible spots on their scrambles, undetected movement of offensive linemen, redefining the neutral zone, hits out of bounds favoring one team, defensive pass interference called when the receivers slow down for under-thrown passes and forcing contact with defenders even when the ball didn’t appear catchable, obvious offensive pass interference go uncalled (yeah you, Riley Cooper), phantom celebration calls, no celebration calls when the player looks like he’s sat in fire ants, and only about one offensive line holding call per team per game. There also was the personal foul called on Arkansas’s defensive lineman who was getting hit by Florida’s lineman and the grounding call against Virginia Tech when Taylor threw the ball far enough downfield but with his left hand. I don’t expect perfectly-called games, but the refs are missing calls my six year old son and wife, neither of whom know anything about the game, would get right.

Florida may be really good. They shouldn’t lose any games until the SEC championship. They should not have needed Cooper’s interference to score their only touchdown against LSU. They should not have needed 25 penalty yards on consecutive plays to set up the tying touchdown against Arkansas. They should not be the top-ranked team in the country.

Alabama is probably really good. Their QB is struggling. I expected this early in the season, but not now. If Tennessee, LSU or Florida can figure out how to slow down Mark Ingram, the Tide could be in trouble.

LSU. The Tigers are back in the top 10. They deserve to be there right now. They may finish in the top 10, and they may finish 5th in the West.
Defensively, they look better than at the start of the season, but they are only a little better than average nationally, and are worse than half of the teams in the SEC. There is some pass rush, but there aren’t any sacks. How is it that one week after LSU records ZERO sacks against Florida, Arkansas records SIX? If the defense can’t get better pressure on the quarterback, all six of our remaining opponents may eat us up with that gimmicky forward pass.

Offensively, being ranked 11th or 12th in the conference in nearly every major offensive category may be fine for some (like Vanderbilt fans), but I’m not too pleased with it. I may be the last one who’s not ready to shoot Jordan Jefferson, but I would like a little target practice with the offensive line. In the second halves against Georgia and Florida, the big guys were whipped. When they’re getting beat, Jefferson can’t get the ball to Lafell, Dickerson and Tolliver. The run blocking has been inconsistent. Now, the linemen haven’t been helped with this stupid no-huddle-look-to-the-sideline-for-audibles system being run. Keeping the offensive linemen in their stances for an additional 15-20 seconds before snapping the ball at this stage of the season is idiotic. Can you say “False Start”? Besides hurting the linemen, this system allows the defense to dictate the play-calling. Did anyone see how Alabama was switching their alignments while South Carolina was sending in their audibles with the same system? I can’t tell you how happy I was reading in the Advocate that the team will stick with this system. If the no-huddle isn’t working, try huddling. You can still call audibles before the linemen get into their stances. In addition, I hate a lot of the play-calling. Have we had a running play between the center and guard result in positive yardage this season? Why on some of these plays is Jefferson handing the ball to Scott six or seven yards behind the line of scrimmage and allowing the defense to build an impenetrable wall in the middle of the line? How many times has Holiday made it past the other side of the line in time to turn north and south? Why can’t Holiday cut up field behind the tackle like Dexter McCluster does? Why can’t Holiday catch a pass in a bubble screen? Why is it that after Jefferson finally completes a pass downfield, no more downfield passes are called until the final minutes of the game? Why at the end of the first half when there is time for a play or two to set up a score is the clock being wound down? Coaches, why are you hamstringing the players with the play-calling? As was suggested last season, maybe it’s time for Crowton to come down from the skybox and coach the players face-to-face. I, for one, expect more from the group of millionaires on the sideline.

Arkansas, South Carolina, Ole Miss and Kentucky. Where’d that defense come from, Arkansas? Even with the bad calls against you, you could have beaten Florida with a little better passing down the stretch by Mallett, and fewer drops by Childs. By the way, what were the refs reviewing on Childs’s touchdown? What was Verne Lundquest thinking when he asked if the pass might be incomplete? If Arkansas continues to play defense like this, they’re going to be a tough team to beat. Ole Miss, South Carolina and Kentucky are all dangerous when they’re not turning the ball over. Ole Miss’s defense against Alabama was outstanding.

Tennessee, Georgia and Auburn. Let me know if you can figure these teams out. Surprisingly, Crompton played well two weeks ago, Georgia can’t run the ball and Auburn won’t play defense.

I don’t know if Mississippi State will win any more games, but I won’t be surprised if they do. This is your grand daddy’s Vandy.

The ACC has been surprising me all season. Tyrod Taylor has had some fantastic games following some horrible games. Florida State and Miami are schizophrenic. Georgia Tech is looking great after looking so bad against Clemson and Miami. Virginia and Duke are looking much better now that they’re playing 1-A opponents. Maryland and Boston College?

Will South Florida bounce back from their first loss? Will Houston be able to maintain after struggling with Mississippi State and Tulane (for a half)? I expected more from Southern Miss and Louisiana Tech. I didn’t from the Sunbelt teams.

One non-south question, is any team in the Big 12 north any good?

My picks for the remainder of the season are strictly based on which team has the higher ranking. Here’s how the final ranking looks.
1 FLORIDA 40.9835
2 IOWA 30.461
3 TEXAS 30.404
4 LSU 29.404
5 GA TECH 28.2355
6 PITTSBURGH 26.8845
7 OREGON 26.832
8 CINCINNATI 22.1795
9 USC 20.476
10 MIAMI 19.9785


For those asking where Alabama is, LSU is ranked higher when the teams play. Unless something dramatic and weird occurs, I expect Alabama to beat LSU and everyone else they face and to be at the top of this ranking at the end of the season. I also expect Texas to win more games by sizable margins than Iowa and claim the 2nd position.

Keep the power flowing,

Bill “The All-Powerful” Ellis

Who's Got The Power? for Oct. 3 games

The new column should be posted at Sportschat.com shortly. Like last week, it may also be posted at LSU's site affiliated with ESPN, Eye On The Tigers.com.