Who’s Got the Power—Aug 23, 2010

I can’t wait for the games to begin. This is the first installment of my college football power ranking posts, based on my model. The teams are not “ranked” based other than performance, so there is on pre-season rankings, but there is a historical factor I’ll explain below.

My model is designed for the entire season to be played, so the results in the first few weeks may look strange. A big reason for this is that I don’t like teams playing weak opponents from what was known as 1-AA. Wins over these teams are barely rewarded, and losses to them bring severe punishment. With this being said, it’s still fun to look at where the teams are ranked throughout the season.

My system isn’t perfect, but my two highest rated teams after Dec. 5, 2009 did play for the BCS championship. Here’s how my final top 10 for 2009 looked:
1. ALABAMA 61.297
2. FLORIDA 49.027
3. TEXAS 45.96
4. CINCINNATI 42.665
5. OHIO ST 41.286
6. BOISE ST 36.873
7. OREGON 36.43
8. GA TECH 32.973
9. VIRGINIA TECH 32.73
10. OKLAHOMA 32.277


The main differences in my final rankings and the polls are that Florida and Texas switch places, Boise State isn’t ranked 3rd, and TCU and Iowa aren’t in the top 10 because their competition didn’t warrant it.

I get criticized for having the teams equally ranked starting the season, but I don’t care. If you don’t like this, feel free to stop reading now and never look at this again. Anyhow, I have entered my predictions through the regular season, and as much as it pains me to write this, Florida looks like it has an edge over Oklahoma in the BCS title game.

My predictions will change for two reasons, one I may guess wrong and VA Tech loses to Boise State while Oklahoma loses to Cincinnati. Also, I haven’t entered any teams to win or lose by 17 points or more yet.
We’ll see!

How this all works—warning this is TECHNICAL!
Teams are assigned points for wins that vary with their rankings and their opponent’s ranking. These points are adjusted upward if they win away from home and downward if they lose at home. The points are also adjusted upward if they win by 17points or more and downward for a loss of 17 points or more.

Then there is a historical bias adjustment which ranks the team’s conference’s performance over the previous four seasons. This bias rewards/punishes a team for playing that opponent. The totals are compiled by using the average of the teams’ RPI or Rating Percentage Index. To make these figures more relevant: 2009’s total counts 40%, 2008 is 30%, 2007 is 20% and 2006 is 10%.

The conferences are also compared to determine which has specifically has the strongest teams. To do this, the top six teams for the SEC are compared to the top six in the Big 10, the Big 12, the top five in the PAC 10, etc.

Because these averages are fluid from one year to the next, the conferences change positions. For 2009, the top divisions were the SEC-A, the PAC 10-A and the Big 10-A. For 2010, the top three are the SEC-A, the Big East-A and the Big 12-A. Teams within these divisions can also change depending on their performance over the past four years. For example, Arkansas has replaced Auburn in the SEC-A group based for 2010.

The effect of the bias is that the total points for a week are multiplied by a factor based on its opponent’s conference where if a team beats a member of the SEC-A group, its total is winning total is multiplied by a factor of 1.67—rewarding them for beating a historically strong opponent. If they lose to them, their losing total is multiplied by 0.33, reducing the effect of the loss for playing such a strong opponent.

Let’s look at three opening SEC games: Florida—Miami, OH, LSU—North Carolina and Vanderbilt—Northwestern. Since this is the opening week, all six teams are equally ranked, so the winners will receive 5 points and the losers will lose 5 points. If Florida wins, its 5 points is reduced to 1.9 points because Miami, OH’s is in the MAC conference which is the 2nd worst (14th) in big-time football. If LSU wins, its 5 points is increased to 6.3 points because the ACC has gained strength the last couple of years to rank 5th for 2010. If Vanderbilt wins, its 5 points is increased to 6.8 points because the Big 10 is ranked 4th. Miami OH’s and North Carolina’s -5 points are adjusted to -1.65, while Northwestern’s -5 points are adjusted to -4.55 since Vanderbilt is in the 7th ranked SEC-B group.

Thanks and keep the power—
Bill Ellis
Bill.theallpowerful.ellis@gmail.com